Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Bonnyrigg Rose

10
Won

Annan Athletic

The model leans Bonnyrigg Rose at 60%. Expected goals: Bonnyrigg Rose 2.88, Annan Athletic 1.42. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 72%. Bonnyrigg Rose won 5 of their last 6; Annan Athletic won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Bonnyrigg Rose67%1.49
XDraw17%5.87
2Annan Athletic16%6.29

Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose. Calibrated probability 60% (raw model output 67%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 84%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.88 – 1.42
LineOverUnder
1.593%7%
2.580%20%
3.562%38%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 218.0%
  • 317.7%
  • 225.7%
  • 205.7%
  • 115.6%
  • 415.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Bonnyrigg Rose −1.5
Bonnyrigg Rose lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.548%52%
-148%20%32%
-0.568%32%
068%16%17%
+0.583%17%
+183%10%7%
+1.593%7%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.