Bo'ness United
Bonnyrigg Rose
The model leans Bonnyrigg Rose at 51%. Expected goals: Bo'ness United 1.49, Bonnyrigg Rose 2.47. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 71%. Bo'ness United won 3 of their last 6; Bonnyrigg Rose won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bo'ness United | 21% | 4.66 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 20% | 4.96 | – | – | – |
| 2Bonnyrigg Rose | 58% | 1.71 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.49 – 2.47| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 56% | 44% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.7%
- 1–37.1%
- 1–17.1%
- 2–26.5%
- 0–25.9%
- 2–35.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bonnyrigg Rose −1| Bo'ness United line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 12% | 78% |
| -0.5 | 22% | – | 78% |
| 0 | 22% | 19% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 21% | 38% |
| +1.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.