Musselburgh Athletic
Bo'ness United
The model leans Bo'ness United at 44%. Expected goals: Musselburgh Athletic 1.62, Bo'ness United 2.06. Over 2.5 goals 71%, both teams to score 71%. Musselburgh Athletic won 0 of their last 4; Bo'ness United won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Musselburgh Athletic | 30% | 3.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.37 | – | – | – |
| 2Bo'ness United | 47% | 2.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bo'ness United. Calibrated probability 44% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.62 – 2.06| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 3.5 | 50% | 50% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–28.7%
- 1–18.4%
- 2–27.0%
- 2–16.8%
- 1–35.9%
- 0–25.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bo'ness United −0.5| Musselburgh Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| -1 | 15% | 16% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 21% | 48% |
| +0.5 | 52% | – | 48% |
| +1 | 52% | 20% | 28% |
| +1.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.