Musselburgh Athletic
Bonnyrigg Rose
The model leans Bonnyrigg Rose at 67%. Expected goals: Musselburgh Athletic 1.30, Bonnyrigg Rose 3.32. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 70%. Musselburgh Athletic won 0 of their last 4; Bonnyrigg Rose won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Musselburgh Athletic | 11% | 9.40 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 14% | 7.38 | – | – | – |
| 2Bonnyrigg Rose | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 89%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.30 – 3.32| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 94% | 6% |
| 2.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 3.5 | 68% | 32% |
| Both teams to score | Yes70% | No30% |
Most likely scores
- 1–37.9%
- 1–27.1%
- 1–46.5%
- 0–36.1%
- 0–25.5%
- 2–35.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bonnyrigg Rose −2| Musselburgh Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 7% | 89% |
| -0.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| 0 | 11% | 13% | 76% |
| +0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| +1 | 24% | 18% | 58% |
| +1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.