Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Bonnyrigg Rose
2–1
Won
Rangers B
The model leans Bonnyrigg Rose at 69%. Expected goals: Bonnyrigg Rose 3.56, Rangers B 1.15. Over 2.5 goals 85%, both teams to score 67%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match81
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Bonnyrigg Rose | 81% | 1.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 8.82 | – | – | – |
| 2Rangers B | 8% | 13.23 | – | – | – |
Pick: Bonnyrigg Rose. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.56 – 1.15| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 95% | 5% |
| 2.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 3.5 | 69% | 31% |
| Both teams to score | Yes66% | No34% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.9%
- 4–17.0%
- 3–06.8%
- 2–16.6%
- 4–06.1%
- 2–05.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 57%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Bonnyrigg Rose −2| Bonnyrigg Rose line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| -1 | 65% | 16% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 11% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 5% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.