Predictions · Highland / Lowland · outside model coverage

Berwick Rangers

02
Lost

Bonnyrigg Rose

The model leans Berwick Rangers at 45%. Expected goals: Berwick Rangers 2.19, Bonnyrigg Rose 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. Berwick Rangers won 1 of their last 6; Bonnyrigg Rose won 5 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Berwick Rangers48%2.08
XDraw22%4.55
2Bonnyrigg Rose30%3.35

Pick: Berwick Rangers. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.19 – 1.72
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.575%25%
3.555%45%
Both teams to scoreYes73%No27%

Most likely scores

  • 218.3%
  • 117.6%
  • 227.1%
  • 126.5%
  • 316.0%
  • 325.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Berwick Rangers −0.5
Berwick Rangers lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.529%71%
-129%20%51%
-0.549%51%
049%20%31%
+0.569%31%
+169%16%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.