Berwick Rangers
Bonnyrigg Rose
The model leans Berwick Rangers at 45%. Expected goals: Berwick Rangers 2.19, Bonnyrigg Rose 1.72. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 74%. Berwick Rangers won 1 of their last 6; Bonnyrigg Rose won 5 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Berwick Rangers | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.55 | – | – | – |
| 2Bonnyrigg Rose | 30% | 3.35 | – | – | – |
Pick: Berwick Rangers. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 78%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.19 – 1.72| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.3%
- 1–17.6%
- 2–27.1%
- 1–26.5%
- 3–16.0%
- 3–25.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Berwick Rangers −0.5| Berwick Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 20% | 51% |
| -0.5 | 49% | – | 51% |
| 0 | 49% | 20% | 31% |
| +0.5 | 69% | – | 31% |
| +1 | 69% | 16% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.