Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Berwick Rangers
3–4
Lost
Heart of Midlothian B
The model leans Berwick Rangers at 69%. Expected goals: Berwick Rangers 3.02, Heart of Midlothian B 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match80
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Berwick Rangers | 80% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 13% | 7.52 | – | – | – |
| 2Heart of Midlothian B | 7% | 13.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Berwick Rangers. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 80%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 93%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.02 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 3–09.3%
- 2–09.3%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–18.2%
- 4–07.1%
- 4–16.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Berwick Rangers −2| Berwick Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 61% | – | 39% |
| -1 | 61% | 19% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 12% | 8% |
| +0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| +1 | 92% | 5% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.