Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Spartans FC
5–0
Won
Heart of Midlothian B
The model leans Spartans FC at 67%. Expected goals: Spartans FC 2.53, Heart of Midlothian B 0.73. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 52%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match76
16
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Spartans FC | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.13 | – | – | – |
| 2Heart of Midlothian B | 8% | 12.79 | – | – | – |
Pick: Spartans FC. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.53 – 0.73| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 84% | 16% |
| 2.5 | 63% | 37% |
| 3.5 | 41% | 59% |
| Both teams to score | Yes48% | No52% |
Most likely scores
- 2–012.3%
- 3–010.4%
- 1–09.7%
- 2–19.0%
- 3–17.6%
- 1–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 56% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Spartans FC −1.5| Spartans FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 22% | 23% |
| -0.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
| 0 | 77% | 15% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 6% | 2% |
| +1.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.