Predictions · League Two · outside model coverage

Stranraer

10
Lost

Spartans FC

The model leans Spartans FC at 36%. Expected goals: Stranraer 1.14, Spartans FC 1.24. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 50%. Stranraer won 3 of their last 6; Spartans FC won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Stranraer33%3.08
XDraw30%3.29
2Spartans FC37%2.70

Pick: Spartans FC. Calibrated probability 36% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.14 – 1.24
LineOverUnder
1.569%31%
2.542%58%
3.522%78%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.1%
  • 0111.5%
  • 1010.6%
  • 009.3%
  • 128.1%
  • 217.5%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 53% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Stranraer 0
Stranraer lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%20%66%
-0.534%66%
034%28%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%22%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.