Stranraer
Kelty Hearts
The model leans Stranraer at 40%. Expected goals: Stranraer 1.32, Kelty Hearts 0.99. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 53%. Stranraer won 3 of their last 6; Kelty Hearts won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stranraer | 43% | 2.34 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 30% | 3.29 | – | – | – |
| 2Kelty Hearts | 27% | 3.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Stranraer. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.32 – 0.99| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 67% | 33% |
| 2.5 | 41% | 59% |
| 3.5 | 20% | 80% |
| Both teams to score | Yes46% | No54% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.1%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–09.9%
- 0–19.8%
- 2–08.6%
- 2–18.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 54% · BTTS No 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stranraer −0.5| Stranraer line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 28% | 28% |
| +0.5 | 72% | – | 28% |
| +1 | 72% | 18% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.