Elgin City
Kelty Hearts
The model leans Elgin City at 35%. Expected goals: Elgin City 1.40, Kelty Hearts 1.37. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 57%. Elgin City won 3 of their last 6; Kelty Hearts won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elgin City | 37% | 2.71 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.59 | – | – | – |
| 2Kelty Hearts | 35% | 2.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Elgin City. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.40 – 1.37| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 76% | 24% |
| 2.5 | 52% | 48% |
| 3.5 | 30% | 70% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.0%
- 1–08.8%
- 0–18.6%
- 2–18.4%
- 1–28.2%
- 0–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Elgin City 0| Elgin City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 18% | – | 82% |
| -1 | 18% | 20% | 62% |
| -0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| 0 | 38% | 25% | 36% |
| +0.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
| +1 | 64% | 20% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.