Kelty Hearts
Dumbarton
The model leans Kelty Hearts at 51%. Expected goals: Kelty Hearts 1.78, Dumbarton 0.92. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Kelty Hearts won 3 of their last 6; Dumbarton won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Kelty Hearts | 56% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.94 | – | – | – |
| 2Dumbarton | 18% | 5.49 | – | – | – |
Pick: Kelty Hearts. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 56%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.78 – 0.92| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.9%
- 1–111.0%
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 0–06.7%
- 3–06.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Kelty Hearts −1| Kelty Hearts line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 25% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.