Annan Athletic
Dumbarton
The model leans Annan Athletic at 50%. Expected goals: Annan Athletic 2.08, Dumbarton 1.33. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 65%. Annan Athletic won 2 of their last 6; Dumbarton won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Annan Athletic | 54% | 1.86 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 23% | 4.36 | – | – | – |
| 2Dumbarton | 23% | 4.31 | – | – | – |
Pick: Annan Athletic. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 77%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.08 – 1.33| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes64% | No36% |
Most likely scores
- 2–19.5%
- 1–19.2%
- 2–07.2%
- 1–06.9%
- 3–16.6%
- 2–26.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Annan Athletic −0.5| Annan Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 33% | – | 67% |
| -1 | 33% | 22% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 21% | 24% |
| +0.5 | 76% | – | 24% |
| +1 | 76% | 14% | 10% |
| +1.5 | 90% | – | 10% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.