Dumbarton
Edinburgh City
The model leans Dumbarton at 50%. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.87, Edinburgh City 1.30. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 63%. Dumbarton won 1 of their last 6; Edinburgh City won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dumbarton | 50% | 2.01 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.07 | – | – | – |
| 2Edinburgh City | 26% | 3.90 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dumbarton. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 50%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.87 – 1.30| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes62% | No38% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–07.8%
- 2–07.3%
- 1–26.6%
- 2–26.2%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dumbarton −0.5| Dumbarton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| -1 | 29% | 22% | 49% |
| -0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| 0 | 51% | 23% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 15% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.