Dumbarton
Celtic B
The model leans Celtic B at 51%. Expected goals: Dumbarton 1.72, Celtic B 2.61. Over 2.5 goals 81%, both teams to score 77%. Dumbarton won 1 of their last 6; Celtic B won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dumbarton | 24% | 4.17 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.14 | – | – | – |
| 2Celtic B | 57% | 1.77 | – | – | – |
Pick: Celtic B. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.72 – 2.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 93% | 7% |
| 2.5 | 81% | 19% |
| 3.5 | 63% | 37% |
| Both teams to score | Yes76% | No24% |
Most likely scores
- 1–27.7%
- 1–36.7%
- 2–26.6%
- 1–15.9%
- 2–35.8%
- 2–15.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 61%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Celtic B −1| Dumbarton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12% | – | 88% |
| -1 | 12% | 13% | 75% |
| -0.5 | 25% | – | 75% |
| 0 | 25% | 18% | 57% |
| +0.5 | 43% | – | 57% |
| +1 | 43% | 20% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.