Dumbarton
Airdrieonians
The model leans Airdrieonians at 67%. Expected goals: Dumbarton 0.79, Airdrieonians 2.61. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 51%. Dumbarton won 1 of their last 6; Airdrieonians won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dumbarton | 8% | 12.12 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 16% | 6.22 | – | – | – |
| 2Airdrieonians | 76% | 1.32 | – | – | – |
Pick: Airdrieonians. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 76%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.79 – 2.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 85% | 15% |
| 2.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 3.5 | 44% | 56% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 0–211.4%
- 0–39.9%
- 1–29.0%
- 0–18.8%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 58% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Airdrieonians −1.5| Dumbarton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 2% | – | 98% |
| -1 | 2% | 6% | 91% |
| -0.5 | 9% | – | 91% |
| 0 | 9% | 15% | 76% |
| +0.5 | 24% | – | 76% |
| +1 | 24% | 21% | 55% |
| +1.5 | 45% | – | 55% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.