Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Airdrieonians

13
Lost

Ross County

The model leans Airdrieonians at 43%. Expected goals: Airdrieonians 1.59, Ross County 1.13. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 55%. Airdrieonians won 1 of their last 6; Ross County won 6 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Airdrieonians47%2.14
XDraw27%3.66
2Ross County26%3.87

Pick: Airdrieonians. Calibrated probability 43% (raw model output 47%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.59 – 1.13
LineOverUnder
1.575%25%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes54%No46%

Most likely scores

  • 1111.8%
  • 1010.5%
  • 219.4%
  • 208.3%
  • 017.5%
  • 126.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Airdrieonians −0.5
Airdrieonians lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.525%75%
-125%23%52%
-0.548%52%
048%25%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%16%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.