Predictions · League One · outside model coverage

Airdrieonians

00
Lost

East Fife

The model leans Airdrieonians at 67%. Expected goals: Airdrieonians 2.52, East Fife 0.75. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 51%. Airdrieonians won 1 of their last 6; East Fife won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Airdrieonians75%1.33
XDraw17%6.02
2East Fife8%12.17

Pick: Airdrieonians. Calibrated probability 67% (raw model output 75%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.52 – 0.75
LineOverUnder
1.584%16%
2.563%37%
3.541%59%
Both teams to scoreYes48%No52%

Most likely scores

  • 2012.1%
  • 3010.2%
  • 109.6%
  • 219.1%
  • 317.6%
  • 117.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 57% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Airdrieonians −1.5
Airdrieonians lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.554%46%
-154%22%24%
-0.576%24%
076%15%9%
+0.591%9%
+191%7%2%
+1.598%2%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.