Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
East Fife
2–5
Lost
St. Mirren B
The model leans East Fife at 50%. Expected goals: East Fife 2.33, St. Mirren B 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match55
21
24
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1East Fife | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.72 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Mirren B | 24% | 4.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: East Fife. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.54| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 3.5 | 54% | 46% |
| Both teams to score | Yes71% | No29% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.7%
- 1–17.5%
- 3–16.8%
- 2–26.7%
- 1–25.8%
- 2–05.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: East Fife −1| East Fife line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 35% | – | 65% |
| -1 | 35% | 21% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 20% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 14% | 11% |
| +1.5 | 89% | – | 11% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.