Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

East Fife

25
Lost

St. Mirren B

The model leans East Fife at 50%. Expected goals: East Fife 2.33, St. Mirren B 1.54. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 72%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1East Fife55%1.83
XDraw21%4.72
2St. Mirren B24%4.12

Pick: East Fife. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 79%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.33 – 1.54
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.574%26%
3.554%46%
Both teams to scoreYes71%No29%

Most likely scores

  • 218.7%
  • 117.5%
  • 316.8%
  • 226.7%
  • 125.8%
  • 205.7%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: East Fife −1
East Fife lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.535%65%
-135%21%45%
-0.555%45%
055%20%25%
+0.575%25%
+175%14%11%
+1.589%11%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.