Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Clyde

14
Lost

St. Mirren B

The model leans Clyde at 55%. Expected goals: Clyde 2.77, St. Mirren B 1.47. Over 2.5 goals 80%, both teams to score 73%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Clyde64%1.56
XDraw18%5.57
2St. Mirren B18%5.61

Pick: Clyde. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.77 – 1.47
LineOverUnder
1.592%8%
2.580%20%
3.561%39%
Both teams to scoreYes72%No28%

Most likely scores

  • 218.1%
  • 317.5%
  • 226.0%
  • 115.9%
  • 325.5%
  • 205.5%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Clyde −1
Clyde lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.545%55%
-145%20%35%
-0.565%35%
065%17%18%
+0.582%18%
+182%11%8%
+1.592%8%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.