Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

East Fife

22
Lost

Spartans FC

The model leans Spartans FC at 40%. Expected goals: East Fife 1.13, Spartans FC 1.44. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. East Fife won 1 of their last 6; Spartans FC won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1East Fife28%3.51
XDraw29%3.48
2Spartans FC43%2.34

Pick: Spartans FC. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.13 – 1.44
LineOverUnder
1.573%27%
2.547%53%
3.526%74%
Both teams to scoreYes52%No48%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.5%
  • 0111.0%
  • 129.0%
  • 108.7%
  • 027.9%
  • 007.7%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 49% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Spartans FC −0.5
East Fife lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.512%88%
-112%18%70%
-0.530%70%
030%26%44%
+0.556%44%
+156%23%21%
+1.579%21%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.