Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Airdrieonians

13
Lost

Stirling Albion

The model leans Airdrieonians at 70%. Expected goals: Airdrieonians 3.08, Stirling Albion 0.72. Over 2.5 goals 73%, both teams to score 51%. Airdrieonians won 1 of their last 6; Stirling Albion won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Airdrieonians83%1.20
XDraw12%8.57
2Stirling Albion5%19.69

Pick: Airdrieonians. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 83%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 95%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.08 – 0.72
LineOverUnder
1.589%11%
2.573%27%
3.552%48%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 3011.0%
  • 2010.7%
  • 408.5%
  • 317.9%
  • 217.7%
  • 106.9%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 60% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Airdrieonians −2
Airdrieonians lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.566%34%
-166%18%16%
-0.584%16%
084%11%6%
+0.594%6%
+194%4%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.