Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Stirling Albion

42
Lost

Cove Rangers

The model leans Cove Rangers at 50%. Expected goals: Stirling Albion 0.94, Cove Rangers 1.69. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Stirling Albion won 2 of their last 6; Cove Rangers won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Stirling Albion20%5.09
XDraw26%3.79
2Cove Rangers54%1.85

Pick: Cove Rangers. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 0.94 – 1.69
LineOverUnder
1.574%26%
2.549%51%
3.527%73%
Both teams to scoreYes50%No50%

Most likely scores

  • 0112.2%
  • 1111.4%
  • 0210.3%
  • 129.7%
  • 007.2%
  • 106.8%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 44% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Cove Rangers −0.5
Stirling Albion lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.57%93%
-17%14%79%
-0.521%79%
021%24%55%
+0.545%55%
+145%25%30%
+1.570%30%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.