Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Cove Rangers
2–0
Won
Dundee United B
The model leans Cove Rangers at 70%. Expected goals: Cove Rangers 3.01, Dundee United B 0.61. Over 2.5 goals 70%, both teams to score 56%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match84
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Cove Rangers | 84% | 1.18 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 11% | 8.81 | – | – | – |
| 2Dundee United B | 4% | 23.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Cove Rangers. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 84%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 96%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.01 – 0.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 88% | 12% |
| 2.5 | 70% | 30% |
| 3.5 | 49% | 51% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 3–012.2%
- 2–012.2%
- 4–09.2%
- 1–08.1%
- 3–17.4%
- 2–17.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 59% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Cove Rangers −2| Cove Rangers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| -1 | 67% | 18% | 15% |
| -0.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
| 0 | 85% | 10% | 5% |
| +0.5 | 95% | – | 5% |
| +1 | 95% | 4% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.