Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Clachnacuddin
5–0
Won
Dundee United B
The model leans Clachnacuddin at 70%. Expected goals: Clachnacuddin 3.95, Dundee United B 1.40. Over 2.5 goals 90%, both teams to score 74%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match81
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Clachnacuddin | 81% | 1.23 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 10% | 9.57 | – | – | – |
| 2Dundee United B | 8% | 12.24 | – | – | – |
Pick: Clachnacuddin. Calibrated probability 70% (raw model output 81%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 92%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.95 – 1.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 97% | 3% |
| 2.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 3.5 | 78% | 22% |
| Both teams to score | Yes74% | No26% |
Most likely scores
- 3–17.0%
- 4–16.9%
- 5–15.4%
- 2–15.3%
- 3–05.0%
- 4–04.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 72% · BTTS Yes 60%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Clachnacuddin −2| Clachnacuddin line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 66% | – | 34% |
| -1 | 66% | 15% | 19% |
| -0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| 0 | 81% | 10% | 9% |
| +0.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
| +1 | 91% | 5% | 3% |
| +1.5 | 97% | – | 3% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.