Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage

Clachnacuddin

02
Lost

Elgin City

The model leans Clachnacuddin at 50%. Expected goals: Clachnacuddin 2.62, Elgin City 1.97. Over 2.5 goals 84%, both teams to score 80%. Clachnacuddin won 3 of their last 6; Elgin City won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Clachnacuddin52%1.93
XDraw19%5.13
2Elgin City29%3.48

Pick: Clachnacuddin. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.62 – 1.97
LineOverUnder
1.594%6%
2.584%16%
3.567%33%
Both teams to scoreYes80%No20%

Most likely scores

  • 216.9%
  • 226.8%
  • 316.0%
  • 325.9%
  • 115.2%
  • 125.2%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 69% · BTTS Yes 63%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Clachnacuddin −0.5
Clachnacuddin lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%19%48%
-0.552%48%
052%18%29%
+0.571%29%
+171%14%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.