Elgin City
Ross County
The model leans Ross County at 55%. Expected goals: Elgin City 1.01, Ross County 2.19. Over 2.5 goals 62%, both teams to score 57%. Elgin City won 3 of their last 6; Ross County won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Elgin City | 15% | 6.48 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 21% | 4.69 | – | – | – |
| 2Ross County | 63% | 1.58 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ross County. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 63%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 85%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 2.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 83% | 17% |
| 2.5 | 62% | 38% |
| 3.5 | 40% | 60% |
| Both teams to score | Yes56% | No44% |
Most likely scores
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–19.0%
- 0–18.9%
- 1–37.2%
- 0–37.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS Yes 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Ross County −1| Elgin City line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 6% | – | 94% |
| -1 | 6% | 11% | 84% |
| -0.5 | 16% | – | 84% |
| 0 | 16% | 20% | 64% |
| +0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| +1 | 36% | 23% | 41% |
| +1.5 | 59% | – | 41% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.