Dunfermline Athletic
Ross County
The model leans Dunfermline Athletic at 51%. Expected goals: Dunfermline Athletic 1.84, Ross County 0.95. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 53%. Dunfermline Athletic won 2 of their last 6; Ross County won 6 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dunfermline Athletic | 57% | 1.74 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.05 | – | – | – |
| 2Ross County | 18% | 5.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dunfermline Athletic. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.84 – 0.95| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–011.3%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
- 0–06.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dunfermline Athletic −1| Dunfermline Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 34% | – | 66% |
| -1 | 34% | 25% | 42% |
| -0.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| 0 | 58% | 23% | 19% |
| +0.5 | 81% | – | 19% |
| +1 | 81% | 13% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.