Livingston
Dunfermline Athletic
The model leans Dunfermline Athletic at 51%. Expected goals: Livingston 1.02, Dunfermline Athletic 1.94. Over 2.5 goals 57%, both teams to score 56%. Livingston won 3 of their last 6; Dunfermline Athletic won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Livingston | 18% | 5.44 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.19 | – | – | – |
| 2Dunfermline Athletic | 58% | 1.73 | – | – | – |
Pick: Dunfermline Athletic. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 58%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 82%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.02 – 1.94| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 2.5 | 57% | 43% |
| 3.5 | 34% | 66% |
| Both teams to score | Yes55% | No45% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.3%
- 0–110.1%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–36.4%
- 0–36.3%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dunfermline Athletic −1| Livingston line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 7% | – | 93% |
| -1 | 7% | 13% | 81% |
| -0.5 | 19% | – | 81% |
| 0 | 19% | 22% | 59% |
| +0.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| +1 | 41% | 24% | 35% |
| +1.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.