Livingston
Forfar Athletic
The model leans Livingston at 50%. Expected goals: Livingston 1.69, Forfar Athletic 0.96. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 51%. Livingston won 3 of their last 6; Forfar Athletic won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Livingston | 54% | 1.87 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 26% | 3.79 | – | – | – |
| 2Forfar Athletic | 20% | 4.99 | – | – | – |
Pick: Livingston. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 54%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.69 – 0.96| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes50% | No50% |
Most likely scores
- 1–012.0%
- 1–111.4%
- 2–010.1%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.1%
- 0–16.8%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 40% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Livingston −0.5| Livingston line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| -1 | 30% | 25% | 45% |
| -0.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| 0 | 55% | 24% | 21% |
| +0.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| +1 | 79% | 14% | 7% |
| +1.5 | 93% | – | 7% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.