Predictions · Challenge Cup · outside model coverage
Forfar Athletic
0–3
Lost
Aberdeen B
The model leans Forfar Athletic at 54%. Expected goals: Forfar Athletic 2.67, Aberdeen B 1.52. Over 2.5 goals 79%, both teams to score 73%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match61
19
20
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Forfar Athletic | 61% | 1.63 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 19% | 5.32 | – | – | – |
| 2Aberdeen B | 20% | 5.07 | – | – | – |
Pick: Forfar Athletic. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.67 – 1.52| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 92% | 8% |
| 2.5 | 79% | 21% |
| 3.5 | 60% | 40% |
| Both teams to score | Yes73% | No27% |
Most likely scores
- 2–18.2%
- 3–17.3%
- 2–26.2%
- 1–16.2%
- 3–25.6%
- 2–05.4%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 68% · BTTS Yes 59%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Forfar Athletic −1| Forfar Athletic line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 42% | – | 58% |
| -1 | 42% | 20% | 38% |
| -0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| 0 | 62% | 18% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 11% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.