Arbroath
Livingston
The model leans Arbroath at 55%. Expected goals: Arbroath 2.03, Livingston 0.83. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 50%. Arbroath won 3 of their last 6; Livingston won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Arbroath | 64% | 1.56 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 22% | 4.49 | – | – | – |
| 2Livingston | 13% | 7.42 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arbroath. Calibrated probability 55% (raw model output 64%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 87%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.03 – 0.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 54% | 46% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes49% | No51% |
Most likely scores
- 2–011.8%
- 1–011.7%
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.7%
- 3–08.0%
- 3–16.6%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arbroath −1| Arbroath line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 41% | – | 59% |
| -1 | 41% | 25% | 35% |
| -0.5 | 65% | – | 35% |
| 0 | 65% | 20% | 14% |
| +0.5 | 86% | – | 14% |
| +1 | 86% | 10% | 4% |
| +1.5 | 96% | – | 4% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.