Greenock Morton
Arbroath
The model leans Arbroath at 41%. Expected goals: Greenock Morton 1.12, Arbroath 1.49. Over 2.5 goals 52%, both teams to score 53%. Greenock Morton won 0 of their last 6; Arbroath won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Greenock Morton | 27% | 3.65 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| 2Arbroath | 44% | 2.25 | – | – | – |
Pick: Arbroath. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 44%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 73%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.12 – 1.49| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 73% | 27% |
| 2.5 | 48% | 52% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes52% | No48% |
Most likely scores
- 1–112.3%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–29.1%
- 1–08.3%
- 0–28.1%
- 0–07.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 48% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Arbroath −0.5| Greenock Morton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 17% | 71% |
| -0.5 | 29% | – | 71% |
| 0 | 29% | 26% | 46% |
| +0.5 | 54% | – | 46% |
| +1 | 54% | 23% | 23% |
| +1.5 | 77% | – | 23% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.