St. Johnstone
Greenock Morton
The model leans St. Johnstone at 69%. Expected goals: St. Johnstone 2.56, Greenock Morton 0.59. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 58%. St. Johnstone won 1 of their last 6; Greenock Morton won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Johnstone | 79% | 1.26 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 15% | 6.66 | – | – | – |
| 2Greenock Morton | 6% | 17.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Johnstone. Calibrated probability 69% (raw model output 79%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.56 – 0.59| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 82% | 18% |
| 2.5 | 61% | 39% |
| 3.5 | 39% | 61% |
| Both teams to score | Yes41% | No59% |
Most likely scores
- 2–014.0%
- 3–012.0%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–18.3%
- 4–07.6%
- 3–17.1%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Johnstone −2| St. Johnstone line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 58% | – | 42% |
| -1 | 58% | 22% | 20% |
| -0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| 0 | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.