Stenhousemuir
Greenock Morton
The model leans Stenhousemuir at 50%. Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.47, Greenock Morton 0.79. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 57%. Stenhousemuir won 4 of their last 6; Greenock Morton won 0 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stenhousemuir | 52% | 1.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 29% | 3.45 | – | – | – |
| 2Greenock Morton | 19% | 5.29 | – | – | – |
Pick: Stenhousemuir. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 52%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 81%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.47 – 0.79| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 66% | 34% |
| 2.5 | 39% | 61% |
| 3.5 | 19% | 81% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 1–015.4%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.3%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.9%
- 0–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 55% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stenhousemuir −0.5| Stenhousemuir line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 27% | – | 73% |
| -1 | 27% | 26% | 47% |
| -0.5 | 53% | – | 47% |
| 0 | 53% | 27% | 20% |
| +0.5 | 80% | – | 20% |
| +1 | 80% | 14% | 6% |
| +1.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.