Stenhousemuir
Inverness Caledonian Thistle
The model leans Stenhousemuir at 29%. Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 1.01, Inverness Caledonian Thistle 0.97. Over 2.5 goals 68%, both teams to score 59%. Stenhousemuir won 4 of their last 6; Inverness Caledonian Thistle won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stenhousemuir | 34% | 2.92 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 34% | 2.97 | – | – | – |
| 2Inverness Caledonian Thistle | 32% | 3.12 | – | – | – |
Pick: Stenhousemuir. Calibrated probability 29% (raw model output 34%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 68%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.01 – 0.97| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 59% | 41% |
| 2.5 | 32% | 68% |
| 3.5 | 14% | 86% |
| Both teams to score | Yes40% | No60% |
Most likely scores
- 1–013.9%
- 0–013.7%
- 1–113.5%
- 0–113.3%
- 2–07.1%
- 2–16.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 55%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stenhousemuir 0| Stenhousemuir line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 14% | – | 86% |
| -1 | 14% | 22% | 64% |
| -0.5 | 36% | – | 64% |
| 0 | 36% | 31% | 33% |
| +0.5 | 67% | – | 33% |
| +1 | 67% | 21% | 12% |
| +1.5 | 88% | – | 12% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.