Raith Rovers
Stenhousemuir
The model leans Raith Rovers at 40%. Expected goals: Raith Rovers 1.26, Stenhousemuir 0.91. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%. Raith Rovers won 3 of their last 6; Stenhousemuir won 4 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Raith Rovers | 43% | 2.33 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.18 | – | – | – |
| 2Stenhousemuir | 26% | 3.91 | – | – | – |
Pick: Raith Rovers. Calibrated probability 40% (raw model output 43%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.26 – 0.91| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 17% | 83% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.4%
- 1–113.1%
- 0–011.5%
- 0–110.4%
- 2–09.0%
- 2–18.2%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Raith Rovers −0.5| Raith Rovers line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20% | – | 80% |
| -1 | 20% | 24% | 56% |
| -0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| 0 | 44% | 29% | 27% |
| +0.5 | 73% | – | 27% |
| +1 | 73% | 18% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.