Stenhousemuir
Motherwell
The model leans Motherwell at 35%. Expected goals: Stenhousemuir 0.85, Motherwell 1.01. Over 2.5 goals 72%, both teams to score 62%. Stenhousemuir won 4 of their last 6; Motherwell won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Stenhousemuir | 28% | 3.54 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 35% | 2.87 | – | – | – |
| 2Motherwell | 37% | 2.70 | – | – | – |
Pick: Motherwell. Calibrated probability 35% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 72%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.85 – 1.01| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 2.5 | 28% | 72% |
| 3.5 | 12% | 88% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 0–115.8%
- 0–015.6%
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–26.7%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 59% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Stenhousemuir 0| Stenhousemuir line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 20% | 70% |
| -0.5 | 30% | – | 70% |
| 0 | 30% | 32% | 38% |
| +0.5 | 62% | – | 38% |
| +1 | 62% | 24% | 15% |
| +1.5 | 85% | – | 15% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.