Greenock Morton
Inverness CT
The model leans Inverness CT at 45%. Expected goals: Greenock Morton 1.10, Inverness CT 1.61. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Greenock Morton won 0 of their last 6; Inverness CT won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Greenock Morton | 25% | 4.03 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 27% | 3.68 | – | – | – |
| 2Inverness CT | 48% | 2.08 | – | – | – |
Pick: Inverness CT. Calibrated probability 45% (raw model output 48%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 75%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.10 – 1.61| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 2.5 | 51% | 49% |
| 3.5 | 29% | 71% |
| Both teams to score | Yes53% | No47% |
Most likely scores
- 1–111.8%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.5%
- 0–28.6%
- 1–07.3%
- 0–06.7%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 41% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Inverness CT −0.5| Greenock Morton line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10% | – | 90% |
| -1 | 10% | 16% | 74% |
| -0.5 | 26% | – | 74% |
| 0 | 26% | 25% | 49% |
| +0.5 | 51% | – | 49% |
| +1 | 51% | 23% | 26% |
| +1.5 | 74% | – | 26% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.