Dundee FC
St. Johnstone
The model leans St. Johnstone at 54%. Expected goals: Dundee FC 0.77, St. Johnstone 1.85. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 54%. Dundee FC won 2 of their last 6; St. Johnstone won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dundee FC | 14% | 7.14 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 24% | 4.16 | – | – | – |
| 2St. Johnstone | 62% | 1.61 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Johnstone. Calibrated probability 54% (raw model output 62%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.77 – 1.85| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 74% | 26% |
| 2.5 | 49% | 51% |
| 3.5 | 27% | 73% |
| Both teams to score | Yes45% | No55% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 0–212.4%
- 1–110.4%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–37.7%
- 0–07.3%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 46% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Johnstone −1| Dundee FC line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 11% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 22% | 63% |
| +0.5 | 37% | – | 63% |
| +1 | 37% | 26% | 37% |
| +1.5 | 63% | – | 37% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.