St. Johnstone
East Fife
The model leans St. Johnstone at 76%. Expected goals: St. Johnstone 3.53, East Fife 0.40. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%. St. Johnstone won 1 of their last 6; East Fife won 1 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1St. Johnstone | 92% | 1.09 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 6% | 15.50 | – | – | – |
| 2East Fife | 2% | 66.67 | – | – | – |
Pick: St. Johnstone. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 92%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 3.53 – 0.40| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 90% | 10% |
| 2.5 | 75% | 25% |
| 3.5 | 55% | 45% |
| Both teams to score | Yes32% | No68% |
Most likely scores
- 3–014.5%
- 4–012.8%
- 2–012.3%
- 5–09.1%
- 1–07.0%
- 3–15.8%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: St. Johnstone −2| St. Johnstone line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 79% | – | 21% |
| -1 | 79% | 13% | 8% |
| -0.5 | 92% | – | 8% |
| 0 | 92% | 6% | 2% |
| +0.5 | 98% | – | 2% |
| +1 | 98% | 2% | 0% |
| +1.5 | 100% | – | 0% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.