Predictions · League 936556 · outside model coverage

St. Johnstone

11
Lost

East Fife

The model leans St. Johnstone at 76%. Expected goals: St. Johnstone 3.53, East Fife 0.40. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 68%. St. Johnstone won 1 of their last 6; East Fife won 1 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1St. Johnstone92%1.09
XDraw6%15.50
2East Fife2%66.67

Pick: St. Johnstone. Calibrated probability 76% (raw model output 92%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 98%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 3.53 – 0.40
LineOverUnder
1.590%10%
2.575%25%
3.555%45%
Both teams to scoreYes32%No68%

Most likely scores

  • 3014.5%
  • 4012.8%
  • 2012.3%
  • 509.1%
  • 107.0%
  • 315.8%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 61% · BTTS No 58%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: St. Johnstone −2
St. Johnstone lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.579%21%
-179%13%8%
-0.592%8%
092%6%2%
+0.598%2%
+198%2%0%
+1.5100%0%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.