Predictions · League Cup · outside model coverage

Aberdeen

30
Won

Dundee FC

The model leans Aberdeen at 32%. Expected goals: Aberdeen 1.27, Dundee FC 1.22. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 52%. Aberdeen won 3 of their last 6; Dundee FC won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Aberdeen36%2.76
XDraw30%3.38
2Dundee FC34%2.93

Pick: Aberdeen. Calibrated probability 32% (raw model output 36%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.27 – 1.22
LineOverUnder
1.571%29%
2.545%55%
3.524%76%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1112.8%
  • 1010.5%
  • 0110.1%
  • 008.3%
  • 218.1%
  • 127.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Aberdeen 0
Aberdeen lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.516%84%
-116%21%62%
-0.538%62%
038%27%35%
+0.565%35%
+165%20%15%
+1.585%15%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.