Aberdeen
Heart of Midlothian
The model leans Heart of Midlothian at 53%. Expected goals: Aberdeen 0.72, Heart of Midlothian 1.75. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 57%. Aberdeen won 3 of their last 6; Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Aberdeen | 14% | 7.22 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 3.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Heart of Midlothian | 61% | 1.64 | – | – | – |
Pick: Heart of Midlothian. Calibrated probability 53% (raw model output 61%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 86%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 0.72 – 1.75| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 71% | 29% |
| 2.5 | 45% | 55% |
| 3.5 | 24% | 76% |
| Both teams to score | Yes42% | No58% |
Most likely scores
- 0–114.8%
- 0–213.0%
- 1–110.7%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.5%
- 0–37.6%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Heart of Midlothian −1| Aberdeen line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 4% | – | 96% |
| -1 | 4% | 11% | 85% |
| -0.5 | 15% | – | 85% |
| 0 | 15% | 23% | 62% |
| +0.5 | 38% | – | 62% |
| +1 | 38% | 26% | 36% |
| +1.5 | 64% | – | 36% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.