Predictions · Conference League Qualification · outside model coverage

Heart of Midlothian

22
Lost

Rapid Wien

The model leans Heart of Midlothian at 68%. Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 2.31, Rapid Wien 0.50. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 64%. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 6; Rapid Wien won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Heart of Midlothian78%1.29
XDraw17%5.98
2Rapid Wien6%17.39

Pick: Heart of Midlothian. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 2.31 – 0.50
LineOverUnder
1.577%23%
2.553%47%
3.531%69%
Both teams to scoreYes36%No64%

Most likely scores

  • 2016.0%
  • 1013.9%
  • 3012.3%
  • 218.1%
  • 407.1%
  • 117.0%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Heart of Midlothian −1.5
Heart of Midlothian lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.555%45%
-155%24%22%
-0.578%22%
078%15%6%
+0.594%6%
+194%5%1%
+1.599%1%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.