Heart of Midlothian
Rapid Wien
The model leans Heart of Midlothian at 68%. Expected goals: Heart of Midlothian 2.31, Rapid Wien 0.50. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 64%. Heart of Midlothian won 3 of their last 6; Rapid Wien won 3 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Heart of Midlothian | 78% | 1.29 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 17% | 5.98 | – | – | – |
| 2Rapid Wien | 6% | 17.39 | – | – | – |
Pick: Heart of Midlothian. Calibrated probability 68% (raw model output 78%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 94%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 2.31 – 0.50| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 77% | 23% |
| 2.5 | 53% | 47% |
| 3.5 | 31% | 69% |
| Both teams to score | Yes36% | No64% |
Most likely scores
- 2–016.0%
- 1–013.9%
- 3–012.3%
- 2–18.1%
- 4–07.1%
- 1–17.0%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS No 56%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Heart of Midlothian −1.5| Heart of Midlothian line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 55% | – | 45% |
| -1 | 55% | 24% | 22% |
| -0.5 | 78% | – | 22% |
| 0 | 78% | 15% | 6% |
| +0.5 | 94% | – | 6% |
| +1 | 94% | 5% | 1% |
| +1.5 | 99% | – | 1% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.