Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Rapid Wien

80
Lost

Grazer AK

The model leans Grazer AK at 34%. Expected goals: Rapid Wien 1.17, Grazer AK 1.25. Over 2.5 goals 56%, both teams to score 50%. Rapid Wien won 3 of their last 6; Grazer AK won 2 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Rapid Wien33%3.01
XDraw30%3.32
2Grazer AK37%2.73

Pick: Grazer AK. Calibrated probability 34% (raw model output 37%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 12: 70%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.17 – 1.25
LineOverUnder
1.570%30%
2.544%56%
3.523%77%
Both teams to scoreYes49%No51%

Most likely scores

  • 1113.0%
  • 0111.1%
  • 1010.4%
  • 008.9%
  • 128.1%
  • 217.6%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 51% · BTTS Yes 50%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Rapid Wien 0
Rapid Wien lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.514%86%
-114%20%65%
-0.535%65%
035%28%38%
+0.562%38%
+162%21%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.