Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Ried

12
Lost

Rapid Wien

The model leans Ried at 39%. Expected goals: Ried 1.21, Rapid Wien 0.90. Over 2.5 goals 65%, both teams to score 57%. Ried won 2 of their last 6; Rapid Wien won 3 of their last 6.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Ried42%2.38
XDraw32%3.13
2Rapid Wien26%3.85

Pick: Ried. Calibrated probability 39% (raw model output 42%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 74%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.21 – 0.90
LineOverUnder
1.562%38%
2.535%65%
3.516%84%
Both teams to scoreYes42%No58%

Most likely scores

  • 1014.7%
  • 1113.2%
  • 0012.1%
  • 0110.9%
  • 208.9%
  • 218.0%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 58% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Ried −0.5
Ried lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.519%81%
-119%24%57%
-0.543%57%
043%29%27%
+0.573%27%
+173%18%9%
+1.591%9%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.