Predictions · League 278 · outside model coverage

Dornbirn

15
Won

Ried

The model leans Ried at 37%. Expected goals: Dornbirn 1.00, Ried 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Dornbirn29%3.42
XDraw32%3.15
2Ried39%2.56

Pick: Ried. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.19
LineOverUnder
1.564%36%
2.537%63%
3.518%82%
Both teams to scoreYes44%No56%

Most likely scores

  • 0113.4%
  • 1113.3%
  • 0011.2%
  • 1011.2%
  • 028.0%
  • 127.9%

Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Dornbirn 0
Dornbirn lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.511%89%
-111%19%69%
-0.531%69%
031%29%40%
+0.560%40%
+160%23%17%
+1.583%17%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.