Predictions · League 278 · outside model coverage
Dornbirn
1–5
Won
Ried
The model leans Ried at 37%. Expected goals: Dornbirn 1.00, Ried 1.19. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 55%.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match29
32
39
| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Dornbirn | 29% | 3.42 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 32% | 3.15 | – | – | – |
| 2Ried | 39% | 2.56 | – | – | – |
Pick: Ried. Calibrated probability 37% (raw model output 39%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 71%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.00 – 1.19| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes44% | No56% |
Most likely scores
- 0–113.4%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–011.2%
- 1–011.2%
- 0–28.0%
- 1–27.9%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Dornbirn 0| Dornbirn line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 11% | – | 89% |
| -1 | 11% | 19% | 69% |
| -0.5 | 31% | – | 69% |
| 0 | 31% | 29% | 40% |
| +0.5 | 60% | – | 40% |
| +1 | 60% | 23% | 17% |
| +1.5 | 83% | – | 17% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.