Austria Lustenau
Ried
The model leans Austria Lustenau at 41%. Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.29, Ried 0.88. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 56%. Austria Lustenau won 2 of their last 6; Ried won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1Austria Lustenau | 45% | 2.24 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 31% | 3.21 | – | – | – |
| 2Ried | 24% | 4.13 | – | – | – |
Pick: Austria Lustenau. Calibrated probability 41% (raw model output 45%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 76%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.29 – 0.88| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 64% | 36% |
| 2.5 | 37% | 63% |
| 3.5 | 18% | 82% |
| Both teams to score | Yes43% | No57% |
Most likely scores
- 1–014.7%
- 1–113.0%
- 0–011.4%
- 0–110.0%
- 2–09.5%
- 2–18.4%
Calibrated calls: Under 2.5 56% · BTTS No 53%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Austria Lustenau −0.5| Austria Lustenau line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| -1 | 21% | 25% | 54% |
| -0.5 | 46% | – | 54% |
| 0 | 46% | 29% | 25% |
| +0.5 | 75% | – | 25% |
| +1 | 75% | 17% | 9% |
| +1.5 | 91% | – | 9% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.