Predictions · Bundesliga · outside model coverage

Austria Lustenau

04
Lost

WSG Tirol

The model leans Austria Lustenau at 51%. Expected goals: Austria Lustenau 1.80, WSG Tirol 0.93. Over 2.5 goals 51%, both teams to score 52%. Austria Lustenau won 2 of their last 6; WSG Tirol won 2 of their last 5.

Match result (1X2)

No market snapshot for this match
OutcomeModelFair oddsMarket oddsMarketEdge
1Austria Lustenau57%1.77
XDraw25%3.97
2WSG Tirol18%5.51

Pick: Austria Lustenau. Calibrated probability 51% (raw model output 57%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance 1X: 82%.

Goals

Expected goals λ 1.80 – 0.93
LineOverUnder
1.576%24%
2.551%49%
3.529%71%
Both teams to scoreYes51%No49%

Most likely scores

  • 1011.7%
  • 1110.9%
  • 2010.6%
  • 219.8%
  • 006.5%
  • 306.3%

Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 46% · BTTS Yes 51%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.

Asian handicap

Fair line: Austria Lustenau −1
Austria Lustenau lineHome coversPushAway covers
-1.533%67%
-133%25%42%
-0.558%42%
058%23%19%
+0.581%19%
+181%13%6%
+1.594%6%

Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.

Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.