WSG Tirol
Sturm Graz
The model leans Sturm Graz at 50%. Expected goals: WSG Tirol 1.04, Sturm Graz 1.83. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 55%. WSG Tirol won 2 of their last 5; Sturm Graz won 2 of their last 6.
Match result (1X2)
No market snapshot for this match| Outcome | Model | Fair odds | Market odds | Market | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1WSG Tirol | 20% | 4.93 | – | – | – |
| XDraw | 25% | 4.00 | – | – | – |
| 2Sturm Graz | 55% | 1.83 | – | – | – |
Pick: Sturm Graz. Calibrated probability 50% (raw model output 55%). Edge = model probability minus the bookmaker's margin-free probability, in percentage points; positive means the model rates the outcome higher than the market. Double chance X2: 80%.
Goals
Expected goals λ 1.04 – 1.83| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 1.5 | 78% | 22% |
| 2.5 | 55% | 45% |
| 3.5 | 32% | 68% |
| Both teams to score | Yes54% | No46% |
Most likely scores
- 1–110.8%
- 0–110.4%
- 1–29.9%
- 0–29.5%
- 1–36.0%
- 1–05.9%
Calibrated calls: Over 2.5 50% · BTTS Yes 52%. The table above is the raw Poisson grid from the expected goals.
Asian handicap
Fair line: Sturm Graz −0.5| WSG Tirol line | Home covers | Push | Away covers |
|---|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 8% | – | 92% |
| -1 | 8% | 14% | 79% |
| -0.5 | 21% | – | 79% |
| 0 | 21% | 23% | 56% |
| +0.5 | 44% | – | 56% |
| +1 | 44% | 24% | 32% |
| +1.5 | 68% | – | 32% |
Whole and half lines only. The fair line is where both sides are closest to even after pushes; it is information, not a recommendation.
Probabilities are model estimates and are not guarantees. This page is not betting advice. 18+.